BxXxB (vs) Apple

Coincidence or not, the "Bixbee" power team of five trades +/- with Apple

Apple is the only firm above three trillion market cap. That’s the top of the CUBai valuation pyramid at ~$3.5T ($3.417T). So, I built a MktCap ladder between $350M and $3.5T consisting of ~2,500 US stocks collectively valued at ~$60T ($59.3T). Let me tell you about the rungs of the ladder that seem to be trying to match Apple.

The discovery of “Bixbee” (BxXxB) seemed to jump out at me from studying the history inside the seemingly unending rise of the market cap for all stocks. Proof that the long-tail is rounding error, there were 8,000+ US stocks at the Internet peak of 2000, yet today (thanks to CompaniesMarketCap), there are 3,700 US stocks valued at the $59.3T mentioned above. So that is clear,… YES, less than half the companies are not just double, but triple, 25-years later.

Each $5T of the now ~$60T total value is being attained at an increasing pace since the total value of US stocks first reached $5T in 1995. You should read the rest of this later if all that’s on your mind is the DROP of more than $5T from ~$63T total US MktCap in less than a month!

Let’s add that on Feb 8th, 1980 the US MktCap reached $1T for the first time. Fifteen years later, the total reached $5T (1995), in three years reached $10T (1998), and doubled to $20T at the 2020 peak. Sure, the recovery back to $20T took seven years (2007) - and to be real/real here - there is a voice that barked louder in the market Monday that this is a possibility. If you happen to be in that camp, you are saying it “could” be until 2032 before MktCap is even near $63T. I do not. The data simply suggests everything is happening faster and will continue to happen FASTER.

Back to the story… from 2007 onward, it was six years to reach $25B in 2013 and only 4 years to reach $30B in 2017. Only 3 years later in 2020, this reached $40B. So, the move from twenty to forty trillion was either 13 or 20 years (if you track from 2000 or from 2007). Regardless, this third $20B happened in a mere four years to the current ~$60T!

Read that again …given the high dive of the past month! What took 203 years to reach $5B, took twelve years to $20B, took 13 years to $40B, and took only 5 years to first surpass $60T. Importantly, very importantly on week’s like we are experiencing, …which includes a -20% year in the $SPY in 2022 only to be followed by two years up ~23.5% each, led was mostly by the largest of the $235B+ MktCap and especially those above $1T.

It's both important and interesting to note that this rise from $20T in 1999/2000 peak (when NVDA IPO'd) to $60T happened as $NVDA rose all of the entire CUBai's range of $350M to $3.5T in these "23.5" years.

To celebrate this run, we found calibrating with BxXxB is not only a nod to the portfolio construct of $BRK, but helps mirror the range of the S&P500 as a single “thing.” I put that in quotes because CUBai is a representation of the stock market that fits in your hand. On to the calibration: $3.5T ($AAPL) vs. ~$2T ($BTC), $1T ($BRK), $500B ($XOM), ~$125B ($SBUX), ~$75B ($EQIX).